This is not the result I was looking for.
Nov. 10th, 2016 08:24 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
silveradeptWell, barring something that would be a truly disqualifying offense, it appears that Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States.
This was not the result I expected. I thought that most of the public, un-walked-back commentary of the candidate would be enough to sour voters that he needed to collect. I failed to recognize that the decency threshold for the generic person is lower than one might think. Yes, even when exposed to the depths of the Internet, I underestimated the potential for cruelty and the number of people that sell the return of times that never were and that would be horrible to anyone not a rich white elitist.
I believed polling. I forgot that people will lie to those asking questions if they feel they will receive repercussions for it. (I expected things to be closer than the polling suggested.) I forgot that the most clear picture of the electorate is found in the places least likely to be surveyed.
I saw the nomination of the candidate as a sign that the party had finally ground itself into irrelevance and the next season would be spent picking up the pieces. That basically any competent person could have run against them and won. Heck, I thought the opportunity to vote for an historic candidate would drive turnout up significantly in all the categories that would punish the Republicans. I thought the endorsement of people who are not just near the third rail, but actively connected to it, would be enough to dissuade people from voting for him.
I forgot that people lie to others if they feel they will receive repercussions for it.
I knew that the way that red-blue states work is that there's usually a large number of red scattered throughout the state and a couple of highly-concentrated population centers that sometimes muster enough blue to win the state. Which is why voter turnout matters - sufficient expansion or suppression of those who can vote influences the ability of the concentrated areas to offset the other ones and maintain a form of balance. There used to be a law that said places with a history of disenfranchisement had to have anything they did regarding voters cleared through the federal government to ensure they weren't returning to old habits, but that law had the teeth taken out of it by people who believed it had been long enough to punish those who were still at it while they were deciding. Unsurprisingly, the places that had that history went for Trump, and I suspect there are more than enough stories about suppression to cover the margin of victory. The rural/urban divide continues to be an issue that needs resolution, presumably with better investments in infrastructure, and with the idea that places should not be undercutting themselves to try and attract business to their space. I do not expect Mr. Trump to understand the supply chain he will be taking command of well enough to grok this.
Third-party voters will catch flak in the battleground states, because their votes were more than enough to flip a state one way or another. Considering the strongest third-party candidate was a libertarian, I doubt that if they had voted for one of the others that the more liberal candidate would have come out ahead. So I'd rather any ire about that be directed at the first-past-the-post system that makes people vote for someone they don't like to prevent someone they despise from taking office. Yes, that means a better voting system might put even more horrid people in power, but I'd rather everyone know it than having people making strategic decisions between people they don't want.
I let my opinion color reality, so like many others, I'm disappointed that the country has responded to my optimism about progress with vitriol. And I'm worried for all the other people I know likely to be affected by this decision and the legislature that is determined to do nothing and undo what had been done before. I'm concerned that there's a crash coming where decisions will have to be made about whether to continue the persona that got him to this point or whether he will abandon it in favor of pragmatism and the reality of being the President. I am not happy about what I suspect the likely result is. And I'm even less happy about the license that will give to all of the supporters to be their true selves instead of hiding any more. That will be...illuminating, but it will also be scary and hard and it will be directed mostly at people who aren't me, because I look like I should be on their side. It's now my job to be even more vocal about how that's not true.
This one has sting on it. Partially because the last time a contested election broke this way, there's more than a few people in the world who were too young to be able to have their voice heard. I feel for all the 17 year-olds today.
Election was the easy part, Mr. Trump. Now we expect you to govern. And in a fashion diametrically opposed to your campaign rhetoric and the general attitude of the party that elected you.
It's going to be exceedingly rough for everyone. It is my hope that we will band together and support each other, even if the government decides that we are no longer people. And that people who look like me will finally start doing their part to help people who don't.
This was not the result I expected. I thought that most of the public, un-walked-back commentary of the candidate would be enough to sour voters that he needed to collect. I failed to recognize that the decency threshold for the generic person is lower than one might think. Yes, even when exposed to the depths of the Internet, I underestimated the potential for cruelty and the number of people that sell the return of times that never were and that would be horrible to anyone not a rich white elitist.
I believed polling. I forgot that people will lie to those asking questions if they feel they will receive repercussions for it. (I expected things to be closer than the polling suggested.) I forgot that the most clear picture of the electorate is found in the places least likely to be surveyed.
I saw the nomination of the candidate as a sign that the party had finally ground itself into irrelevance and the next season would be spent picking up the pieces. That basically any competent person could have run against them and won. Heck, I thought the opportunity to vote for an historic candidate would drive turnout up significantly in all the categories that would punish the Republicans. I thought the endorsement of people who are not just near the third rail, but actively connected to it, would be enough to dissuade people from voting for him.
I forgot that people lie to others if they feel they will receive repercussions for it.
I knew that the way that red-blue states work is that there's usually a large number of red scattered throughout the state and a couple of highly-concentrated population centers that sometimes muster enough blue to win the state. Which is why voter turnout matters - sufficient expansion or suppression of those who can vote influences the ability of the concentrated areas to offset the other ones and maintain a form of balance. There used to be a law that said places with a history of disenfranchisement had to have anything they did regarding voters cleared through the federal government to ensure they weren't returning to old habits, but that law had the teeth taken out of it by people who believed it had been long enough to punish those who were still at it while they were deciding. Unsurprisingly, the places that had that history went for Trump, and I suspect there are more than enough stories about suppression to cover the margin of victory. The rural/urban divide continues to be an issue that needs resolution, presumably with better investments in infrastructure, and with the idea that places should not be undercutting themselves to try and attract business to their space. I do not expect Mr. Trump to understand the supply chain he will be taking command of well enough to grok this.
Third-party voters will catch flak in the battleground states, because their votes were more than enough to flip a state one way or another. Considering the strongest third-party candidate was a libertarian, I doubt that if they had voted for one of the others that the more liberal candidate would have come out ahead. So I'd rather any ire about that be directed at the first-past-the-post system that makes people vote for someone they don't like to prevent someone they despise from taking office. Yes, that means a better voting system might put even more horrid people in power, but I'd rather everyone know it than having people making strategic decisions between people they don't want.
I let my opinion color reality, so like many others, I'm disappointed that the country has responded to my optimism about progress with vitriol. And I'm worried for all the other people I know likely to be affected by this decision and the legislature that is determined to do nothing and undo what had been done before. I'm concerned that there's a crash coming where decisions will have to be made about whether to continue the persona that got him to this point or whether he will abandon it in favor of pragmatism and the reality of being the President. I am not happy about what I suspect the likely result is. And I'm even less happy about the license that will give to all of the supporters to be their true selves instead of hiding any more. That will be...illuminating, but it will also be scary and hard and it will be directed mostly at people who aren't me, because I look like I should be on their side. It's now my job to be even more vocal about how that's not true.
This one has sting on it. Partially because the last time a contested election broke this way, there's more than a few people in the world who were too young to be able to have their voice heard. I feel for all the 17 year-olds today.
Election was the easy part, Mr. Trump. Now we expect you to govern. And in a fashion diametrically opposed to your campaign rhetoric and the general attitude of the party that elected you.
It's going to be exceedingly rough for everyone. It is my hope that we will band together and support each other, even if the government decides that we are no longer people. And that people who look like me will finally start doing their part to help people who don't.
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no subject
Date: 2016-11-10 04:29 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2016-11-10 04:36 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2016-11-11 03:43 am (UTC)You, my friend, are a very strange white person.
I've been kinda wanting to tell you that for years...and now I can. Yes, you are a very strange white person.
no subject
Date: 2016-11-11 03:58 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2016-11-11 03:59 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2016-11-11 04:00 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2016-11-11 05:41 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2016-11-11 05:52 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2016-11-11 06:00 am (UTC)You are doing your part to bring forth kindness and worth in the things you touch. I hardly expect perfection, but I have faith in your hard work and sincerity. I think you will live up to that, and more.
no subject
Date: 2016-11-11 09:55 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2016-11-11 03:48 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2016-11-11 11:44 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2016-11-21 04:55 pm (UTC)And yes, all of this.
... I forgot that most of the country does not get its news from the internet, and they're only seeing through the TV-filter; they never saw the endless rebuttals and analyses and declarations that HE IS LYING TO YOU, HE IS LYING TO EVERYONE. Nobody on TV said, "well, actually, about 2/3 of those things you want to do as president, either aren't legal or aren't possible, so could we hear a bit about what you're planning to do that might actually happen?"
... arg. And more like that. And it looks like he has no intention of governing; he wants to do a victory tour (and live in his NY palace) while allowing Pence and Ryan to duke it out over whether the US turns into the Republic of Gilead or Panem.
Anyway. Um. Azz referenced you as A Cool Person To Know, and I'm trying to start a Discordian Church and thought that might be relevant to your interests, so I've given you access so you can see those things. (Don't expect/need that returned; I lock everything job- or family-related, along with anything that doesn't welcome random wandering-past responses.)
no subject
Date: 2016-11-23 02:51 pm (UTC)Yes, the part where very few people in network television did anything about fact-checking is a cause for grave concern. That if looks like he's going ti stuff the executive full of Pence and Bannon abs their ilk suggests it will be a very rough ride due the next few years.
no subject
Date: 2016-11-11 07:27 pm (UTC)